Elementary two-state Markov model of land-use dynamics

Model : markov1
Simile version : 3.1+
Date added : 2003-06-25
Keywords : Land-use change ; Markov model ;

Description

Space is represented as a square grid. Each cell can be in one of two states (0 or 1). There is a probability p1 that a cell in state 0 will change to state 1, and a probability p2 that a cell in state 1 will change to state 0: p1 and p2 are constant. There is no interaction between neighbouring cells.

A practical handout, in pdf format, for using this and two other models of land-use dynamics is available here

Files

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markov1.sml

Diagram

Equations

Equations in ../Desktop
 n1 = sum([state])
           where: [state] = patch/state

Equations in patch
 state = (if time(1) == 0 then 0 
                  elseif prev(1) == 0 and rand_var(0,1)<0.1 then 1
                  elseif prev(1) == 1 and rand_var(0,1)<0.1 then 0
                  else prev(1))
 column = fmod(index(1)-1,10)+1
 row = 1

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