TY - JOUR T1 - Linking Spatial and Temporal Modeling: A Case Study from the Eastern Pamir, TJ JF - International Journal of Geoinformatics Y1 - 2019 A1 - Hohberg, G. A1 - Schwarz-v Raumer, H. G. AB -

The Eastern Pamir of Tajikistan is a remote high mountain region located in the east of Tajikistan. Today, a great share of the Eastern Pamir’s local energy demand is satisfied by dwarf shrubs (Krascheninnikovia ceratoides and Artemisia spp.) and animal manure. Besides of their energetic potential, dwarf shrubs are an important nutrient source for local livestock. It is assumed that overuse of local dwarf shrub stands leads to a degradation of pastures. With decreasing pasture quality, potentially, less livestock can be kept by locals. Besides of the economic losses associated with a decrease in livestock numbers, yields of manure also decline. In order to compensate the missing manure yields, locals may harvest even more dwarf shrubs. Thus, potentially a self-reinforcing functional chain exists in this system. BRECKLE AND WUCHERER (2006) refer to the degradation of pasturelands due to excessive dwarf shrub harvest in the Pamir Mountains as teresken syndrome. In a field study, we identified typical current energy carrier usage patterns in the village of Alichur, the second largest settlement in the Eastern Pamir. We then used a System Dynamics and Geographical Information Systems combining hybrid approach to analyze the energy system of Alichur and we modeled two scenarios of the system: one pessimistic in terms of dwarf shrub growth and one optimistic. Both scenarios show that in the short to medium term a collapse of the energy system of Alichur is unlikely to happen. The optimistic scenario indicates that resource consumption currently is sustainable in terms of pasture quality and dwarf shrub balance. The assumed self-reinforcing functional chain could not be confirmed. After all, the model provides strong indications that the teresken syndrome does not apply for Alichur. In addition to these findings, the case study shows, that combining SD and GIS in one model, allows for a conceptual understanding of the modeled system (mainly SD part), mass-balance simulations (SD and GIS parts) and visualization of model results (GIS part). Thereby, in addition to the case study results, this work demonstrates that System Dynamics and Geographical Information Systems combining hybrid approaches are a powerful tool for case study analysis, model simulation and result presentation. The approach is able to clarify structural assumption on the regional Social-Ecological-System and to support management decision.

VL - 15 IS - 4 ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Mussels or tunicates: That is the question. Evaluating efficient and sustainable resource use by low-trophic species in aquaculture settings JF - Journal of Cleaner Production Y1 - 2019 A1 - Filgueira, Ramón A1 - Strople, Leah C. A1 - Strohmeier, Tore A1 - Rastrick, Samuel A1 - Strand, Øivind VL - 231 JO - Journal of Cleaner Production ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Intermediate foraging large herbivores maintain semi-open habitats in wilderness landscape simulations JF - Ecological Modelling Y1 - 2018 A1 - Schulze, Kiowa Alraune A1 - Rosenthal, Gert A1 - Peringer, Alexander AB -

In the context of the rewilding Europe debate, the German national strategy on biodiversity aims to dedicate two percent of the German state area to wilderness development until 2020. Many of these potential large wilderness reserves harbor open habitats that require protection according to the Flora-Fauna-Habitat-directive of the European Union. As forests prevail in potential natural vegetation, research is required, to which extent wild large herbivores and natural disturbances may create semi-open landscape patterns in the long-term. We used the spatially explicit process-based model of pasture-woodland ecosystem dynamics WoodPaM, to analyze the long-term interactions between intermediate foraging large wild herbivores and vegetation dynamics in edaphically heterogeneous forest-grassland mosaic landscapes. We newly implemented a routine for intermediate foraging herbivores. We determined herbivore impact on vegetation from the quantitative balance between the demand and supply of herbaceous forage and woody browse. In abstract landscapes that represent the conditions in the established German wilderness area "Döberitzer Heide", we simulated potential future landscape dynamics on open land, in forest and along forest edges with and without intermediate foraging large herbivores and for a climate change scenario. In our simulations the currently open landscape was conserved and even more the opening of current oak and beech forest was promoted. Canopy thinning and patch-mosaics of oak, birch, poplar and pine stands increased the overall nature conservation value in the long-term. To the contrary, open habitats were lost in simulations without herbivores. Moreover, our simulations suggested that intermediate foraging herbivores are especially suitable to maintain semi-open landscapes in wilderness areas, because (i) no additional winter forage was required, the natural availability of browse was sufficient. (ii) Their grazing maintained open land and their browsing thinned tree canopies even on poor sites that were unattractive for foraging. Here, habitat was maintained for threatened species from dry grasslands.

VL - 379 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0304380018301133 JO - Ecological Modelling ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Disturbance-grazer-vegetation interactions maintain habitat diversity in mountain pasture-woodlands JF - Ecological Modelling Y1 - 2017 A1 - Peringer, Alexander A1 - Buttler, Alexandre A1 - Gillet, François A1 - Pătru-Stupariu, Ileana A1 - Schulze, Kiowa A. A1 - Stupariu, Mihai-Sorin A1 - Rosenthal, Gert AB -

Low-intensity livestock grazing is a widespread management tool in order to maintain habitat diversity in mountain pasture-woodlands for nature conservation purposes. Historical photographs indicate that forest disturbance significantly contributed to forest-grassland mosaic pattern formation. Disturbance-grazer interactions are however poorly understood and the effects of logging or windthrow are rarely considered in management plans. Moreover, disturbance-grazer interactions are crucial for the maintenance of open habitats in the upcoming “rewilding” approach of nature conservation. We aimed to understand the effects of forest gap creation by the breakdown of senile trees or by single-tree cutting and of large forest openings by windthrow or logging on mosaic pattern formation in pasture-woodlands that were grazed by cattle and dominated by tree species with distinct regeneration ecology (Picea abies vs. Fagus sylvatica). We used the process-based model of pasture-woodland vegetation dynamics WoodPaM and newly implemented a forest disturbance routine. We simulated disturbance and grazing scenarios in an artificial mountain landscape and analyzed mosaic patterns with landscape metrics. We found that grazing in absence of disturbance promoted simply structured mosaics that were preconditioned by topography. Only large-scale forest disturbance disrupted this pattern and maintained the historical heterogeneous distribution of grassland communities across all habitat conditions (especially species-rich mountain grasslands on poor soil). This prerequisite is stronger in pasture-woodlands where the ecology of the dominant tree species promotes forest-grassland segregation (F. sylvatica in our case) and less in naturally thin-canopy mountain forest close to the tree line (P. abies). In wilderness areas, the very low density of grazers may limit the maintenance of open habitats regardless disturbance.

VL - 359 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S030438001730100Xhttps://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S030438001730100X?httpAccept=text/xmlhttps://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S030438001730100X?httpAccept=text/plain JO - Ecological Modelling ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Landscape-scale simulation experiments test Romanian and Swiss management guidelines for mountain pasture-woodland habitat diversity JF - Ecological Modelling Y1 - 2016 A1 - Peringer, Alexander A1 - Gillet, François A1 - Rosenthal, Gert A1 - Stoicescu, Ioana A1 - Pătru-Stupariu, Ileana A1 - Stupariu, Mihai-Sorin A1 - Buttler, Alexandre AB -

Distinct guidelines have been proposed in Romania and Switzerland for the management of pasture-woodlands that either focused on the regulation of grazing pressure (Romanian production perspective) or overall tree cover (Swiss conservation perspective). However, the landscape structural diversity and the cover of forest-grassland ecotones, which are both crucial for nature conservation value, were not explicitly considered.

We aimed to compare the country-specific management guidelines regarding their efficiency for the conservation of the structurally diverse forest-grassland mosaics in the light of recent land-use and climate change.

In strategic simulation experiments using the process-based model of pasture-woodland ecosystems WoodPaM, we analyzed the relationships among drivers for the formation of mosaic patterns (grazing intensity, climate change) and the resulting landscape properties (tree cover, forest-grassland ecotones, mosaic structure) during the past until today (2000 AD).

The results showed that tree canopy densification following recent climate warming is likely to trigger landscape structural shifts. Medium grazing pressure promoted the development of the full range of pasture-woodland habitats and is therefore confirmed as a management strategy that balances agronomic demands and nature conservation value. Tree cover is rejected as a criteria to monitor pasture-woodland conservation status, because its relationship to landscape structural diversity and to the cover of forest-grassland ecotones did not hold for changing climate.

Our results suggest “experimental-retrospective” analysis as a useful tool to test conclusions from expert knowledge.

VL - 330 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0304380016300795 JO - Ecological Modelling ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Multi-scale feedbacks between tree regeneration traits and herbivore behavior explain the structure of pasture-woodland mosaics JF - Landscape Ecology Y1 - 2016 A1 - Peringer, Alexander A1 - Schulze, Kiowa A. A1 - Stupariu, Ileana A1 - Stupariu, Mihai-Sorin A1 - Rosenthal, Gert A1 - Buttler, Alexandre A1 - Gillet, François AB -

The pasture-woodlands of Central Europe are low-intensity grazing systems in which the structural richness of dynamic forest-grassland mosaics is causal for their high biodiversity. Distinct mosaic patterns in Picea abies- and Fagus sylvatica-dominated pasture-woodlands in the Swiss Jura Mountains suggest a strong influence of tree species regeneration ecology on landscape structural properties. At the landscape scale, however, cause-effect relationships are complicated by habitat selectivity of livestock.

VL - 31 UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10980-015-0308-z IS - 4 JO - Landscape Ecol ER - TY - JOUR T1 - The Multiscale Integrated Model of Ecosystem Services (MIMES): Simulating the interactions of coupled human and natural systems JF - Ecosystem Services Y1 - 2015 A1 - Boumans, Roelof A1 - Roman, Joe A1 - Altman, Irit A1 - Kaufman, Les AB - In coupled human and natural systems ecosystem services form the link between ecosystem function and what humans want and need from their surroundings. Interactions between natural and human components are bidirectional and define the dynamics of the total system. Here we describe the MIMES, an analytical framework designed to assess the dynamics associated with ecosystem service function and human activities. MIMES integrate diverse types of knowledge and elucidate how benefits from ecosystem services are gained and lost. In MIMES, users formalize how materials are transformed between natural, human, built, and social capitals. This information is synthesized within a systems model to forecast ecosystem services and human-use dynamics under alternative scenarios. The MIMES requires that multiple ecological and human dynamics be specified, and that outputs may be understood through different temporal and spatial lenses to assess the effects of different actions in the short and long term and at different spatial scales. Here we describe how MIMES methodologies were developed in association with three case studies: a global application, a watershed model, and a marine application. We discuss the advantages and disadvantage of the MIMES approach and compare it to other broadly used ecosystem service assessment tools. VL - 12 JO - Ecosystem Services ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Multiscale digital Arabidopsis predicts individual organ and whole-organism growth JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Y1 - 2014 A1 - Chew, Y. H. A1 - Wenden, B. A1 - Flis, A. A1 - Mengin, V. A1 - Taylor, J. A1 - Davey, C. L. A1 - Tindal, C. A1 - Thomas, H. A1 - Ougham, H. J. A1 - de Reffye, P. A1 - Stitt, M. A1 - Williams, M. A1 - Muetzelfeldt, R. A1 - Halliday, K. J. A1 - Millar, A. J. AB - Understanding how dynamic molecular networks affect whole-organism physiology, analogous to mapping genotype to phenotype, remains a key challenge in biology. Quantitative models that represent processes at multiple scales and link understanding from several research domains can help to tackle this problem. Such integrated models are more common in crop science and ecophysiology than in the research communities that elucidate molecular networks. Several laboratories have modeled particular aspects of growth in Arabidopsis thaliana, but it was unclear whether these existing models could productively be combined. We test this approach by constructing a multiscale model of Arabidopsis rosette growth. Four existing models were integrated with minimal parameter modification (leaf water content and one flowering parameter used measured data). The resulting framework model links genetic regulation and biochemical dynamics to events at the organ and whole-plant levels, helping to understand the combined effects of endogenous and environmental regulators on Arabidopsis growth. The framework model was validated and tested with metabolic, physiological, and biomass data from two laboratories, for five photoperiods, three accessions, and a transgenic line, highlighting the plasticity of plant growth strategies. The model was extended to include stochastic development. Model simulations gave insight into the developmental control of leaf production and provided a quantitative explanation for the pleiotropic developmental phenotype caused by overexpression of miR156, which was an open question. Modular, multiscale models, assembling knowledge from systems biology to ecophysiology, will help to understand and to engineer plant behavior from the genome to the field. UR - http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/08/27/1410238111.full.pdf+html?sid=66edb45d-8e99-4d84-a072-a47729a65e14 JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Spatiotemporal dynamics of landscape pattern and hydrologic process in watershed systems JF - Journal of Hydrology Y1 - 2011 A1 - Randhir, Timothy O. A1 - Tsvetkova, Olga VL - 404 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022169411001880https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S0022169411001880?httpAccept=text/xmlhttps://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S0022169411001880?httpAccept=text/plain IS - 1-2 JO - Journal of Hydrology ER - TY - CHAP T1 - Chapter Seven Integrated Modelling Frameworks for Environmental Assessment and Decision Support T2 - Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment Y1 - 2008 A1 - A. E. Rizzoli A1 - G. Leavesley A1 - J. C. Ascough II A1 - R. M. Argent A1 - I. N. Athanasiadis A1 - V. Brilhante A1 - F. H. A. Claeys A1 - O. David A1 - M. Donatelli A1 - P. Gijsbers A1 - D. Havlik A1 - A. Kassahun A1 - P. Krause A1 - N. W. T. Quinn A1 - H. Scholten A1 - R. S. Sojda A1 - F. Villa ED - A. J. Jakeman ED - A. A. Voinov ED - A. E. Rizzoli ED - S. H. Chen KW - environmental integrated modelling frameworks KW - knowledge representation KW - model engineering KW - model management KW - modelling frameworks AB -

In this chapter we investigate the motivation behind the development of modelling frameworks that explicitly target the environmental domain. Despite many commercial and industrial-strength frameworks being available, we claim that there is a definite niche for environmental-specific frameworks. We first introduce a general definition of what is an environmental integrated modelling framework, leading to an outline of the requirements for a generic software architecture for such frameworks. This identifies the need for a knowledge layer to support the modelling layer and an experimentation layer to support the execution of models.

The chapter then focuses on the themes of knowledge representation, model management and model execution. We advocate that appropriate knowledge representation and management tools can facilitate model integration and linking. We stress that a model development process adhering to industry standards and good practices, called “model engineering,” is to be pursued. We focus on the requirements of the experimental frame, which can ensure transparency and traceability in the execution of simulation scenarios and optimisation problems associated with complex integrated assessment studies.

A promising trend for knowledge representation is the use of ontologies that have the capacity to elicit the meaning of knowledge in a manner that is logical, consistent and understandable by computers and the knowledge worker community. This new path in knowledge-based computing will support retention of institutional knowledge, while putting modelling back in the hands of modellers. Environmental modelling will then become a conceptual activity, focusing on model design rather than model implementation, with code generation being delegated to some degree to ontology-aware tools. In this respect, we envision the whole model lifecycle to change drastically, becoming more of a theoretical activity and less of a coding-intensive, highly engineering-oriented task.

JF - Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment PB - Elsevier VL - 3 SN - 9780080568867 ER - TY - JOUR T1 - The effect of vegetation on pesticide dissipation from ponded treatment wetlands: Quantification using a simple model JF - Chemosphere Y1 - 2008 A1 - Michael T. Rose A1 - Angus N. Crossan A1 - Ivan R. Kennedy KW - Cotton KW - Herbicide KW - Insecticide KW - Macrophyte KW - Phytoremediation KW - Runoff water AB -

Field data shows that plants accelerate pesticide dissipation from aquatic systems by increasing sedimentation, biofilm contact and photolysis. In this study, a graphical model was constructed and calibrated with site-specific and supplementary data to describe the loss of two pesticides, endosulfan and fluometuron, from a vegetated and a non-vegetated pond. In the model, the major processes responsible for endosulfan dissipation were alkaline hydrolysis and sedimentation, with the former process being reduced by vegetation and the latter enhanced. Fluometuron dissipation resulted primarily from biofilm reaction and photolysis, both of which were increased by vegetation. Here, greater photolysis under vegetation arose from faster sedimentation and increased light penetration, despite shading. Management options for employing constructed wetlands to polish pesticide-contaminated agricultural runoff are discussed. The lack of easily fulfilled sub-models and data describing the effect of aquatic vegetation on water chemistry and sedimentation is also highlighted.

VL - 72 UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2008.04.059 IS - 7 ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Semantic links in integrated modelling frameworks JF - Mathematics and Computers in Simulation Y1 - 2008 A1 - Andrea E. Rizzoli A1 - Marcello Donatelli A1 - Ioannis N. Athanasiadis A1 - Ferdinando Villa A1 - David Huber KW - Integrated modelling frameworks KW - Model linking KW - Model reuse KW - Ontologies AB -

It is commonly accepted that modelling frameworks offer a powerful tool for modellers, researchers and decision makers, since they allow the management, re-use and integration of mathematical models from various disciplines and at different spatial and temporal scales. However, the actual re-usability of models depends on a number of factors such as the accessibility of the source code, the compatibility of different binary platforms, and often it is left to the modellers own discipline and responsibility to structure a complex model in such a way that it is decomposed in smaller re-usable sub-components. What reusable and interchangeable means is also somewhat vague; although several approaches to build modelling frameworks have been developed, little attention has been dedicated to the intrinsic re-usability of components, in particular between different modelling frameworks. In this paper, we focus on how models can be linked together to build complex integrated models. We stress that even if a model component interface is clear and reusable from a software standpoint, this is not a sufficient condition for reusing a component across different integrated modelling frameworks. This reveals the need for adding rich semantics in model interfaces.

VL - 78 IS - 2-3 ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Corrigendum to “It was an artefact not the result: A note on systems dynamic” [Environ. Model. Softw. 20 (2005) 1543–1548] JF - Environmental Modelling & Software Y1 - 2006 A1 - R. Seppelta A1 - O. Richterb VL - 21 IS - 5 ER - TY - JOUR T1 - “It was an artefact not the result”: A note on systems dynamic model development tools JF - Environmental Modelling & Software Y1 - 2005 A1 - R. Seppelt A1 - O. Richter KW - Lotka-Volterra equation; Predator-prey modelling KW - MATEMATICA KW - MATLAB KW - Model analysis KW - MODELMAKER KW - Numerical ODE solvers KW - Simile KW - STELLA KW - Stiff systems AB -

Environmental modelling is done more and more by practising ecologists rather than computer scientists or mathematicians. This is because there is a broad spectrum of development tools available that allows graphical coding of complex models of dynamic systems and help to abstract from the mathematical issues of the modelled system and the related numerical problems for estimating solutions. In this contribution, we study how different modelling tools treat a test system, a highly non-linear predator–prey model, and how the numerical solutions vary. We can show that solutions (a) differ if different development tools are chosen but the same numerical procedure is selected; (b) depend on undocumented implementation details; (c) vary even for the same tool but for different versions; and (d) are generated but with no notifications on numerical problems even if these could be identified. We conclude that improved documentation of numeric methods used in the modelling software is essential to make sure that process based models formulated in terms of these modelling packages do not become “black box” models due to uncertainty in integration methods.

VL - 20 IS - 12 N1 -

07 October: Integration methods test model added to the model catalogue, Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model (Seppelt and Richter, 2005).
The model is included in response to the call by Seppelt and Richter (2005) for evaluation of the numerical methods of simulation modelling tools. Such evaluation is to be welcomed as it is required to provide confidence in results, though of course, the model itself must also represent the target system adequately for confidence. If either the model representation or numerical methods are flawed, the results will be flawed. Unfortunately, Seppelt and Richter (2005) report aberrant behaviour of Simile 3.2 though neither the authors nor we can reproduce the flawed behaviour. A corrigendum has been published.

 

ER -