@article {4394, title = {The Nile Water-Food-Energy Nexus under Uncertainty: Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam}, journal = {Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management}, volume = {146}, year = {2020}, month = {Jan-11-2020}, pages = {04020085}, abstract = {

Achieving a water, food, and energy (WFE) nexus balance through policy interventions is challenging in a transboundary river basin because of the dynamic nature and intersectoral complexity that may cross borders. The Nile basin is shared by a number of riparian countries and is currently experiencing rapid population and economic growth. This has sparked new developments to meet the growing water, food, and energy demands, alleviate poverty, and improve the livelihood in the basin. Such developments could result in basinwide cooperation or trigger conflicts among the riparian countries. A system dynamics model was developed for the entire Nile basin and integrated with the food and energy sectors in Egypt to investigate the future of the WFE nexus with and without the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) during filling and subsequent operation using basinwide stochastically generated flows. Different filling rates from 10\% to 100\% of the average monthly flow are considered during the filling process. Results suggest that the GERD filling and operation would affect the WFE nexus in Egypt, with the impact likely to be significant if the filling process occurred during a dry period. Food production from irrigated agriculture would be reduced by 9\%\–19\% during filling and by about 4\% during GERD operation compared with the case without it. The irrigation water supply and hydropower generation in Sudan will be reduced during the filling phase of the GERD, but this is expected to be improved during the dam operation phase as a result of the regulation afforded by the GERD. Ethiopian hydropower generation is expected to be boosted by the GERD during the filling and operation of the dam, adding an average of 15,000\ \ GWh/year15,000\ \ GWh/year once GERD comes online. Lastly, the results reveal the urgency of cooperation and coordination among the riparian countries to minimize the regional risks and maximize the regional rewards associated with the GERD.

}, issn = {0733-9496}, doi = {10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001285}, url = {http://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/\%28ASCE\%29WR.1943-5452.0001285http://ascelibrary.org/doi/pdf/10.1061/\%28ASCE\%29WR.1943-5452.0001285}, author = {Elsayed, Hamdy and Djordjevi{\'c}, Slobodan and Savi{\'c}, Dragan A. and Tsoukalas, Ioannis and Makropoulos, Christos} } @article {4400, title = {An integrated model to evaluate water-energy-food nexus at a household scale}, journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software}, volume = {93}, year = {2017}, month = {Jan-07-2017}, pages = {366 - 380}, abstract = {

To achieve a sustainable supply and effectively manage water, energy and food (WEF) demand, interactions between WEF need to be understood. This study developed an integrated model, capturing the interactions between WEF at end-use level at a household scale. The model is based on a survey of 419 households conducted to investigate WEF over winter and summer for the city of Duhok, Iraq. A bottom-up approach was used to develop this system dynamics-based model. The model estimates WEF demand and the generated organic waste and wastewater quantities. It also investigates the impact of change in user behaviour, diet, income, family size and climate.

The simulation results show a good agreement with the historical data. Using the model, the impact of Global Scenario Group (GSG) scenarios was investigated. The results suggest that the \‘fortress world\’ scenario (an authoritarian response to the threat of breakdown) had the highest impact on WEF.

}, issn = {13648152}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.03.034}, url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364815216306594https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S1364815216306594?httpAccept=text/xmlhttps://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S1364815216306594?httpAccept=text/plain}, author = {Hussien, Wa{\textquoteright}el A. and Memon, Fayyaz A. and Savi{\'c}, Dragan A.} }